BidVariance

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Lets consultants, agencies and engineering teams see the modeled cost and deadline risk behind a fixed-price quote before committing to it.

Project management tools

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A browser-based Monte Carlo estimating tool that turns task cost ranges and discrete risks into P50/P80/P90 costs, probability of loss and a target-margin quote.

Consultancies and agencies quoting fixed-price work
Systems integrators and engineering firms
Estimators modeling cost and schedule risk
Specialist contractors assessing bid margins

Features

Monte Carlo simulation — Every license includes 5k, 25k and 100k run depths
P50/P80/P90 cost estimates — Percentile cost outcomes under the estimates you supply
Probability of loss — How often a proposed bid loses money under your assumptions
Target-margin quote — The minimum price needed at the confidence level you choose
Deadline confidence — Probabilistic schedule with task criticality
Sensitivity / tornado analysis — Drivers that move cost and finish date
Local-first project storage — Projects are stored in the browser and exported as JSON backups
CSV and JSON import/export
PDF decision reports
Scenario comparison — Up to four saved scenarios side by side on Business and Consultant
Free calculators — 14 no-signup calculators covering pricing, risk, scope and cash flow

Pros

Projects and simulation data stay in the browser; no account is created and no project data is uploaded.
Every license is a one-time, perpetual purchase that includes free minor updates.
Simulation depths of 5k, 25k and 100k runs are included in every license.
14 single-purpose calculators are free for everyone, with no license or signup.

Cons

The full simulation workspace requires a paid license and there is no free trial of it.
Projects are stored in the browser with no shared cloud workspace and no automatic sync between devices.
No consulting, onboarding, custom setup, custom deployment or white-labeling is included in any license.

Overview

BidVariance is a browser-based estimating tool for fixed-price project work. Users enter low, likely and high (three-point) values for each task, add discrete risk events, and run Monte Carlo simulations of up to 100,000 iterations to see how costs and finish dates may vary. Results include P50, P80 and P90 cost figures, the probability that a bid loses money, the minimum quote needed for a target margin, and deadline-confidence output.

The full workspace requires a one-time license — Pro at $129, Business at $249, or Consultant at $399 — and runs in a browser with an online license check on launch. Projects are stored locally in the browser (IndexedDB) and can be exported as JSON backups; there is no shared cloud workspace and no automatic sync between devices. BidVariance also offers 14 free single-purpose calculators covering pricing, cash flow, schedule, scope and risk, which need no account or license.